Analisis Dampak Belanja Modal, Belanja Barang, Belanja Pegawai, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Fiscal Stress (Studi Kasus Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2022-2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54065/jss.6.3.2026.1564Keywords:
Capital Expenditure, Economic Growth, Employee Expenditure, Fiscal Stress, Goods ExpenditureAbstract
Fiscal stress has become an important issue for local governments because it reflects the pressure on regional budgets in financing public services and development needs. In regency/city governments, fiscal stress may arise when expenditure growth is not balanced by adequate fiscal capacity and economic performance. Therefore, identifying the factors that influence fiscal stress is essential to support sustainable regional financial management. This study aims to analyze the effect of Capital Expenditure Growth, Goods Expenditure Growth, Employee Expenditure Growth, and Economic Growth on fiscal stress in regency/city governments in East Java Province during the 2022–2024 period. This research used a quantitative approach with a causal research design. The data were secondary data obtained from Regional Budget Realization Reports published by the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance and Gross Regional Domestic Product data published by Statistics Indonesia. The sample consisted of 35 regencies/cities over a three-year observation period, resulting in 105 observations. Data were analyzed using panel data regression with STATA software. Model selection through the Chow Test, Lagrange Multiplier Test, and Hausman Test indicated that the Fixed Effect Model with robust standard errors was the most appropriate model. The results show that Capital Expenditure Growth and Employee Expenditure Growth have no significant effect on fiscal stress. Meanwhile, Goods Expenditure Growth and Economic Growth have a significant effect on fiscal stress. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly affect fiscal stress, with a Prob > F value of 0.0013. The R-Squared value of 0.1158 indicates that the research variables explain 11.58% of the variation in fiscal stress. This study implies that local governments need to improve goods expenditure efficiency and strengthen regional economic growth to reduce fiscal pressure and support sustainable fiscal management.
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